China's growth record over recent decades is remarkable, yet how expansion and unemployment interact there is still contested terrain. Drawing on Okun's Law, structural unemployment theory, and labor market segmentation theory, we examine this nexus within China's institutional setting—an urban-rural dual economy in the middle of industrial and technological upheaval. The evidence points to a nonlinear relationship, conditioned by industrial restructuring, technological advancement, labor market policy, and the divide between city and countryside. Structural transformation, we argue, sits at the center of the story, and any serious policy design has to start from that fact.